All-Star Predictions
How many Nets make the cut? What to do with the Suns backcourt and more (Originally published Jan 27th, 2022)
Dear Readers,
Welcome to yet another edition of Wyatt’s NBA newsletter! A special Thursday edition this time around to help you all get through the day.
I know you all greatly enjoyed the novel I sent you last time, but in case you prefer something a little more *digestible*, this week is going to be up your alley. All-Star Starters are going to be announced soon, Thursday I think, and then reserves will be announced after that. So before the teams are officially announced, I am proud to present to you my All-Star teams.
I am going to put an ever so slight twist on mine and will omit players who are going to be selected but will likely end up sitting the game out on account of injury. In other words, no Kevin Durant or Draymond Green.
As a refresher, the teams are formatted as such: five starters and seven reserves each. Two of the starters, and two of the reserves must be guards, three of the starters and three of the reserves must be forwards or centers. The last two spots are wild cards and can be any position.
Let’s get into it.
Eastern Conference Starters
Backcourt: Trae Young, DeMar DeRozan
Trae Young announced his arrival last year in the playoffs, only to take a step back at the beginning of this year. Whether that was his fault or that of the lethargic play of the rest of the team, I don’t know, but time heals all. Trae is now averaging 28 points (fifth in the NBA), four rebounds, and 9.3 assists (third in the NBA). Atlanta still needs to hide him on defense, but he is an offense unto himself. Easy choice here.
DeMar is also an easy choice, though he should be listed as a frontcourt player given how many minutes he logs at either the three or the four. He’s sixth in the NBA in scoring at 26.3 points per game, and has shown off his improved playmaking and off-ball skills alongside co-star Zach LaVine. He also did this and this, which was pretty cool.
Frontcourt: Giannis Antetokounmpo, Joel Embiid, Jimmy Butler
Giannis is the reigning Finals MVP, he’s fourth in the NBA in scoring, third in PER, and unstoppable when he gets going downhill. And he’s sixth in the NBA in rebounds. All-Star starter, undoubtedly.
Joel Embiid has been awesome this season. By this season, in his case, I mean since his November bout with Covid. After averaging only 23 points a game in October and November, he’s now up to 29 per game (third in the NBA) thanks to a monstrous December and an even more impressive January. His 4.3 assists would be a career-high, but the kicker is the fact that he has this team two and a half games above the play-in despite nobody else being able to create offense when he’s off the floor (sorry Tyrese Maxey).
Jimmy Butler is the only real risky choice, and it has nothing to do with play on the court and everything to do with the fact that he’s only played 29 games. But with Kevin Durant likely out for the All-Star game, exceptions need to be made. I thought about Jarrett Allen, but the fact that the Heat are first in the Eastern Conference gives Butler the edge. He’s averaging 21.4 points and over six assists and rebounds, giving him the individual resume to go along with that of his team.
Eastern Conference reserves
Backcourt: Fred VanVleet, Zach LaVine
Fred VanVleet All-Star, let’s gooooo. He’s been Toronto’s best player this season by a country mile. 21.7 points and 7 assists even should be more than enough to get him in this year, especially when you consider the fact that the Raptors were widely seen as a lottery team this year, not one that would be in the middle of the play-in race.
Zach LaVine is scoring 24.9 points a game for the second-best team in the NBA, playing the best defense of his career, and overall just thriving alongside DeMar Derozan. He is an elite scorer and one of the best shooters in the NBA. He’s just a hair under fifty percent from the field at 48.7%, and that paired with 40.8% from three is remarkably efficient for a volume scorer.
Frontcourt: Jarrett Allen, Jayson Tatum, Miles Bridges
Full disclosure, I love Jarrett Allen. You guys know this because of the newsletter I did on the Cavs a while ago, but really I fell for him when the New York Times did this profile of him. Nerdy athletes man. Anyways, Jarrett Allen is an All-Star regardless of my personal feelings. He averages a double-double with 16 points and 11 rebounds, the latter of which is good for 8th in the NBA. It’s on defense, though, where he really makes an impact. He’s arguably the best rim protector in the league and has improved his footwork to the point that he can switch most ball screens.
The Celtics have undoubtedly not lived up to expectations this season. Both Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown have the statistics to be in the All-Star conversation, but the Celtics’ 25-24 record doesn’t merit two All-Stars. Tatum’s efficiency has dipped, particularly from deep where he’s only hitting 33% from beyond the arc. Still, he’s putting up 26 points a game so he gets the nod here.
Miles Bridges is one I don’t feel great about, given that he’s not the best player on his team. That honor belongs to a certain LaMelo Ball. But there is a wealth of great guards in the East, enough that there is no spot for LaMelo. Charlotte, however, does merit an All-Star nomination, which brings us to Ball’s running mate. This past off-season, the Hornets had the chance to extend Miles Bridges, and elected to allow him to become a restricted free agent following this season. They may regret that decision because at 20.1 points a game and seven rebounds, he is worthy of an All-Star nod.
Wild Cards: Jrue Holiday, James Harden
Jrue Holiday’s top-line stats don’t jump off the page. 18..2 points, 4.6 rebounds, and 6.4 assists is nothing to be sneered at, but it’s not exactly eye-popping stuff. Jrue Holiday has never been an offensive juggernaut, opting instead to be one of the best point of attack defenders in the league. We saw the value of this in the Bucks’ playoff run, when he showed his worth against James Harden and Chris Paul. Holiday gets the nod ahead of the likes of Darius Garland and LaMelo Ball on account of the Bucks being the reigning champs.
James Harden gets a spot for the same reason. The Nets, for all their dysfunction, are still in contention for the number one overall seed. Whether or not they want it given Kyrie’s inability to play home games as an unvaccinated idiot, is up for debate. Harden had a rough start to the season but has recovered nicely to the tune of 23.1 points, 8.1 rebounds, and 10.1 assists (second in the NBA). The Nets will get two all-stars, and after KD James Harden is the only candidate.
Western Conference Starters
Backcourt: Steph Curry, Chris Paul
The Western conference backcourt was tough, because there are two spots for three, maybe even three and a half, players. Steph is widely seen as a lock, but so much of that relies on his first quarter of the season. Yes I understand how much he affects winning with his movement and he doesn’t need to score and all that, but it would be nice if he would shoot better than 29.1% from three in January. Still, the Warriors aren’t this good without him, and his numbers (25.8 points, 5.4 rebounds, 6.2 assists) are flashy enough to get him in. Oh, and he is averaging 4.8 made threes a game. Second on that list is Fred VanVleet at 3.9.
Chris Paul also gets a starting spot for me, but I again do it somewhat regretfully because I’m giving it to him ahead of Ja Morant and Devin Booker who are just WAY more fun. But alas, the Point God has been too close to perfect this season to not be an All-Star starter. He’s able to control the pace of games as well as anybody, but what separates him from guys like Trae or Luka is that he does not demand the same level of heliocentricity, not sure if that’s a word but the red squiggly line isn’t showing up so it looks like we’re good. Ironically, I misspelled squiggly and the red line did show up there. Back to Chris Paul, the Suns being first in the East is hard to ignore, as is the fact that he leads the NBA in assists per game at 10.2.
Frontcourt: LeBron James, Nikola Jokic, Rudy Gobert
The first two spots were easy here. LeBron is playing out of his freaking mind. It’s always the same with him every season now, he takes a little while to get going, people start to question if this is finally the year age catches up to him, and then he goes into Space Jam mode. This year it’s been reminiscent of his early Cleveland days given the ill-fitting talent around him. Since December, he’s averaging 30.5 points (!!!) a game. He’s only a hair behind Kevin Durant right now in the scoring race, he’s shooting 52 percent from the field, and he’s LeBron James. Undeniable All-Star.
Jokic is another easy one, albeit you have to trust the nerds a bit. The Nuggets’ Center is blowing up every advanced metric imaginable. He has a healthy cushion above Joel Embiid for best PER and in Player Impact Estimate (PIE)(is yummy). Despite his help coming in the form of Monte Morris, Will Barton, Aaron Gordon, and no other serious NBA talent, he has the Nuggets sixth in the west, a game back from the Mavericks in fifth and two games out of the play-in. The reigning MVP is another easy All-Star choice.
Western Conference Reserves:
Backcourt: Devin Booker, Ja Morant
To be clear, Ja Morant was the third choice for the last starting spot and Devin Booker was the third and a half. Ja certainly has the narrative behind him having led the Grizzlies to a surprise third place in the West and delivered highlight after highlight after highlight. I could have gone on forever and not gotten bored of looking through Ja Morant twitter. Though he just misses out on starting on account of Steph Curry being Steph Curry and Chris Paul being Chris Paul, as well as the Warriors and the Suns so obviously being in a tier of their own, I would not be surprised and certainly would not be disappointed if he ended up getting the starting nod.
Devin Booker also misses out on the start despite having a strong argument for it, but having your backcourt running mate be your team’s focal point makes it hard. Take nothing away from Booker, who in his seventh season has continued to grow and get better. His 37.7 percent mark from three would be a career-high if he keeps it up, as would be his averaging of one steal. He’s also giving up the least amount of turnovers since his rookie year. Booker has been on a particularly impressive tear as of late and the Suns look every part the western conference champion they were last year.
Frontcourt: Karl Anthony-Towns, Luka Doncic, Brandon Ingram
Karl Anthony-Towns has an outside shot as a starting spot given how widely unpopular Rudy Gobert is and the increased level of focus he’s playing with on both sides of the ball, but especially on defense. When KAT arrived in the league he was seen as a potential All-Defense, maybe even DPOY-type player. He hasn’t quite lived up to that hype, but this season he’s shown real strides. A lot of people have chalked it up to Minnesota’s acquisition of Patrick Beverly, whose defensive intensity is well documented, but KAT himself has really flipped a switch this season and will deservedly be representing the 7th place Timberwolves in Cleveland.
Luka, not unlike several others on this list, got off to a slow start this season. It’s almost like these guys just are in the middle of a third tightly scheduled season with an Olympics sandwiched in there as well, hmmmm. It took a while for Doncic to gel with new Dallas coach Jason Kidd, who has shifted away from Rick Carlisle’s offensive style and played more defensive-minded guys like Reggie Bullock, Dorian Finney-Smith, and Dwight Powell. Midway through December, the Mavs were 14-15. Since then, they’ve won 14 out of 20 games. Coincidentally, Luka has been playing his best ball in that span.
The West frontcourt gets thin fast. This last spot could go to any of DeAndre Ayton, Mikal Bridges, Andrew Wiggins, Jaren Jackson Jr, Bojan Bogdonavic, Or Brandon Ingram. I decided to go with Ingram here, because he quietly has led the Pelicans out of the deep deep abyss and into *almost* relevancy. They’re only a game and a half out of the play-in right now, and that is largely thanks to the play of Ingram, who is averaging 22.4 points, 6.4 rebounds, and 5.2 assists and has officially received my vote for the last Western All-Star frontcourt spot.
Wild card: Donovan Mitchell, Dejounte Murray
Donovan Mitchell is the last easy pick here. He’s averaging 25.5 points a game, which is 11th in the NBA, with 5.2 assists as well. His three-point shooting is down this season at 33.9%, but I expect that will stabilize as the season goes on. He’s an integral part of a Jazz team that, despite its flaws, is very very good. Spida should be an All-Star and, more than likely, he will be.
The last pick here is more contentious. You’ve got the frontcourt players I mentioned earlier, Anthony Edwards, and then my pick, Dejounte Murray. Dejounte has been an absolute stud for San Antonio all season, putting up triple-doubles left and right. In fact, he’s damn near close to averaging one with per-game averages of 19.2 points, 8.4 rebounds, and 9.1 assists. The Spurs are a lot of fun to watch, despite the lack of national attention they get. And a lot of that comes from Dejounte. I hope this is the first of many All-Stars for Murray.
Other Notes
The Washington Wizards are a joke. I’m sorry Wiz fans but that loss to the Clippers was pure comedy. They let a Paul George (and Kawhi Leonard)-less Los Angeles team come back from down THIRTY-FIVE. Even worse, they lost on a last-second four-point play by LUKE KENNARD.
The New York Knicks are not much better. They got demolished by the Pelicans at MSG and were deservedly booed by the New York crowd.
Grayson Allen is still a prick and a dirty player, committing a very intentional foul on Alex Caruso and leaving the Bulls guard with a broken wrist. Never liked that guy.