World Cup Group Stage Update
Taking a break from basketball this week to focus on Qatar, where group stage play is two-thirds of the way done but much is still left to be decided in the final match days
There is something about the spectacle of the World Cup that is unparalleled by any other competition. Even the Olympics, with all of their tradition, don’t deliver the same sense of competition as Soccer’s premier tournament. The ebbs and flows of each ninety-minute match have the potential to deliver seemingly every emotion on the spectrum, from the elation of putting home a crucial goal for your side to the despair of them conceding one, to the empty pit of realizing he was actually offside.
Qatar and FIFA continue to face deserved criticism for Qatar’s abysmal record on human rights, questions about LGBTQ fans being able to attend, and the treatment of the migrant workers who largely built all of the stadiums being used. Today, a pitch invader brought some of these issues to light during the Portugal-Argentina match.
In spite of FIFA legitimizing the oppressive Qatari regime off the back of the beautiful game, the matches have been no less scintillating–blood diamonds still shine.
Every team has now played two of their three group stage games, and among the many themes is that of relative parity. Only two sides have been mathematically eliminated already (hosts Qatar and Canada), and only three have already ensured passage to the knockout rounds (reigning champs France, Brazil, and Portugal). For the 27 other teams, it’s all to play for as we head into the final matchday of the group stage.
Part of the brilliance of the World Cup is in the beautiful awkwardness of two countries with intertwined histories facing off against each other. Former colonies have the opportunity to face off against the countries they fought to be rid off, as happened when the United States took on England last Friday. Breel Embolo, who represents Switzerland but was born in Cameroon, found himself in the tricky position of facing (and scoring against) his birth country.
By and large though, the messy politics end at the touchline, leaving space for the athletes of these thirty-two countries to pursue soccer’s greatest prize and write their names into history.
Below is an update now that the tournament has advanced to the final round of group stage matches. The thirty-two countries that arrived were split up into eight groups of four. Each team plays the other three teams in their group one time, with the top two teams advancing to the last knockout rounds (single-elimination playoffs). Here is a breakdown of how the tiebreakers work.
Group A
1. Ecuador — 4 points (+2 GD)
2. Netherlands — 4 points (+2)
3. Senegal — 3 points (0)
4. Qatar — 0 (-4) – ELIMINATED
Group A heads into its final match day with three of its four teams still very much alive and hoping to advance into the knockout rounds. Only host nation Qatar, which set the record for the fastest exit by a host nation in the history of the World Cup, has been mathematically eliminated after losing its opening match 2-0 to Ecuador and then falling 3-1 to Senegal.
The fourth team in this group, the Netherlands, currently sit top with four points alongside Ecuador. Though they are in a good position to qualify for the knockouts, the Dutch have somewhat underwhelmed. Their match against Senegal was knotted at 0-0 for all of 83 minutes, with the African side having their fair share of chances and testing Dutch goalkeeper Andries Noppert. The Netherlands’ breakthrough finally came in the 84th minute when their young striker Cody Gakpo buried a header off a Frenkie De Jong cross. A late rebound goal from Davy Klaassen secured the result and gave the Dutch a generous 2-0 scoreline.
In their second match, the Netherlands scored early but were then largely outplayed by a talented Ecuadorian squad who continuously put pressure on the Dutch Goal. Ecuador thought they’d equalized right on the stroke of halftime only for their goal to be ruled offside. Their attacking efforts would eventually yield paydirt when Enner Valencia finished off a spilled save, and in the end only the crossbar saved the Dutch from coming away from nothing.
Fortunately for Louis Van Gaal’s side, they’ve got the two hardest matches behind them. So long as they manage not to lose to already eliminated Qatar, they’re through the group stage. Ecuador vs Senegal shapes up to be a great match, with Senegal needing a win to advance.
Final Round of Group Stage:
Tuesday November 29th, 10AM EST
Ecuador vs Senegal
Netherlands vs Qatar
Group B
1. England — 4 points (+4 GD)
2. Iran — 3 points (-2)
3. USA — 2 points (0)
4. Wales — 1 point (-2)
Having drawn their first two games, the United States Men’s National Team heads into their final group stage match requiring a victory to advance out of the group. Iran, thanks to a surprise 2-0 win against Wales, would likely move on with a draw barring Wales upsetting heavyweights England. England impressed in their opening game, handily beating Iran 6-2, but was arguably fortunate to escape with a draw against the United States who more than held their own and probably had the better chances by the time the full-time whistle came.
The United States has played three quality halves of soccer through their two matches, with the only exception coming in the second half against the Wales when they allowed sustained pressure and a deserved equalizer via a rash challenge by center-back Walker Zimmerman to give away a penalty converted by Gareth Bale.
American Manager Gregg Berhalter would have been especially content with how well his side muted England’s potent, Harry Kane-led attack. His central defensive pairing of Walker Zimmerman and Tim Ream were much improved compared to their draw against Wales, but it was the midfield engine of Yunus Musah, Tyler Adams, and Weston McKennie who simply outworked their English opponents and powered the United States to chance after chance. All that was lacking was the finishing touch.
The Americans will have to find goals somehow, because anything less than a win against Iran will see them leaving Qatar. As important as this matchup is, the buildup to the Iran-USA matchup has focused as much on the two countries’ political tensions as it has on how the two sides will line up on Tuesday, with Iranian reporters grilling Gregg Berhalter and American captain Tyler Adams in addition to the US editing the Iranian flag in support of Iranian women. If the match is anything like the press conference, expect a testy affair between two teams both needing results and two countries with a messy shared history.
Final Round of Group Stage:
Tuesday November 29th, 2PM EST
Iran vs USA
Wales vs England
Group C
1. Poland — 4 points (+2)
2. Saudi Arabia — 3 points (+1 GD)
3. Argentina — 3 points (+1)
4. Mexico — 1 point (-2)
Group C gave us the first real fireworks of this World Cup when Saudi Arabia shocked the world and took down Lionel Messi and Argentina 2-1 when the two sides met in this group’s opening match. The Argentinians had not one, not two, but three first-half goals ruled out for offside before they conceded two second-half goals, the second of which was a particularly beautiful strike from just inside the box. Ultimately, Saudi Arabia’s size and athleticism won the day, in a match where the ref seemed content to accept kickboxing moves as fair tackles.
Argentina found a response in their second match against Mexico, beating the North American side 2-0. Messi struck first with a pinpoint outside-the-box finish that found the narrowest window of space between the post and Mexican Goalkeeper, Guillermo Ochoa’s outstretched fingers. Enzo Fernandez then sealed the victory in the 87th minute with a just stunning curved effort.
Despite dropping that first game to the Saudis, Argentina can still top the group with a win over current leaders Poland in the final matchday. That will pit old rivals Messi and Robert Lewandowski, who faced off countless times for Barcelona and Bayern Munich, respectively, in European club competitions, before Lewandowski actually more or less replaced Messi following the Argentine’s move to Paris Saint-Germain. Lewandowski scored his first-ever World Cup goal against the Saudis after having a penalty saved in their opening match against Mexico.
All in all, Group C is delicately poised going into the final match day, with every side believing they have a chance to advance. While Mexico has only a sole point to their name, a win combined with a Poland loss would see them advance, and a big win (more than three goals) would see them overtake Argentina should they only manage a draw against Poland. Saudi Arabia has already proved that they’re no pushovers after downing Argentina, and they also likely need a win to advance, setting up an intriguing affair.
Final Round of Group Stage:
Wednesday November 30th, 2PM EST
Poland vs Argentina
Saudi Arabia vs Mexico
Group D
1. France — 6 points (+4 GD) – QUALIFIED
2. Australia — 3 points (-2)
3. Denmark — 1 points (-1)
4. Tunisia — 1 points (-1)
France became the first team to secure a spot in the knockouts with a 4-1 win over Australia and a 2-1 win against Denmark, giving them the benefit of resting key players in their final match against Tunisia. Even if Didier Deschsamps decides to rest players, the North African side would need a minor miracle to win against France combined with a Denmark-Australia draw in order to advance. The Tunisians could also advance if Denmark wins if the tiebreaks break their way.
The Danes go into the final matchday with the most pressure. With only one point through two matches, they need a win to have a chance at qualifying for the knockouts. They’ll face an Australian side who already have three points in the bank by way of a 1-0 win over Tunisia. Australia advances with a win or a draw plus a Tunisia loss.
The French do look a real threat to repeat. The electrifying Kylian Mbappe already has three goals to his name including the winner against Denmark. Filling in for Ballon D’or winner Karim Benzema, who is missing the tournament through injury, is the ever-youthful Olivier Giroud, whose brace against Argentina put him level with Thierry Henry for the most goals in French Soccer history.
Kylian Mbappe of France celebrates in front of a raucous crowd following his winner against Denmark
Final Round of Group Stage:
Wednesday November 30th, 10AM EST
Tunisia vs France
Australia vs Denmark
Group E
1. Spain — 4 points (+6 GD)
2. Japan — 3 points (0)
3. Costa Rica — 3 points (-6)
4. Germany — 1 point (-1)
Alongside Saudi Arabia’s topping of Argentina, Group E also brought us one of the group stage’s best upsets with Japan taking down Germany in their opening match 2-1. Takuma Asano’s winner was a particularly splendid effort, with the Japanese attacker delicately taking control of a long ball over the top while simultaneously getting goalside of German defender Nico Schlotterback, outmuscling him and firing home over Manuel Neuer’s shoulder and into the roof of the net.
That loss immediately put the German’s qualification hopes on the brink heading into a showdown with Spain, who trounced Costa Rica 7-0 in the tournament’s most lopsided win so far. Things were looking particularly dire for the Germans when Alvaro Morata gave Spain the lead with a delicate outside of the boot finish. Niclas Füllkrug, the joint-second leading scorer in the Bundesliga, gave Germany life with a well-taken right footed shot that found its way past Unai Simón to secure his side a point and a lifeline towards qualification. Still, Germany will rue several missed chances across both their matches, with Leroy Sané’s spurning of a one-on-one chance at the death against Spain.
Japan’s surprise 1-0 loss to Costa Rica means that all four teams are still alive heading into the final match day. Spain sits atop the foursome with four points, meaning that a draw against Japan would suffice to see them through. A draw for Japan could see them finish level on points with the Germans, meaning a tiebreak would be required. This being the case, Germany will look to pour it on against Costa Rica just as Spain did. Given their -6 goal differential, it would take an upset of Germany for Costa Rica’s tournament to continue.
Final Round of Group Stage:
Thursday December 1st, 2PM EST
Japan vs Spain
Costa Rica vs Germany
Group F
1. Croatia — 4 points (+3 GD)
2. Morocco — 4 points (+2)
3. Belgium — 3 points (+1)
4. Canada — 0 points (-4) – ELMINATED
Group F brings us to two of the tournament's great stories.
First, Canada, who have the unfortunate honor of being the only side besides host nation Qatar to be eliminated after the first two matches. The Canadians can and should leave the tournaments with their heads held high. They went toe-to-toe with Belgium in their opening game. Alphonso Davies, the 22-year-old Bayern Munich phenom, who came to Canada with his family as refugees, had a great chance to score the first-ever goal for his country when they were awarded a penalty early in the first half, only for Belgian goalkeeper Thibault Courtois to save it. The Courtois penalty save was the beginning of an impressive performance that saw him fell Canada again and again. A Michy Batshuayi goal just before halftime gave Belgium a slim lead that they were able to hold onto for a 1-0 win.
Davies redeemed himself marvelously for his saved penalty when he skied to meet Tajon Buchanan’s cross and powered a thunderous header past Croatian goalkeeper Dominik Livaković. The young Canadian peeled off and deservedly exalted in celebration of his country’s first-ever World Cup goal. Though Croatia would go on to score four unanswered goals and win 4-1 to seal the Canadian’s fate, Davies’ magnificent header was a sumptuous moment.
The other great emerging story from this group is Morocco, who followed up a disappointing 0-0 draw to Croatia with a 2-0 upset of Belgium that delivered one of the best atmospheres from the tournament. After having a goal disallowed for offside just before halftime, Substitute Abdelhamid Sabiri finally capitalized on the Moroccan momentum, catching Courtois out with a freekick near the corner flag. The majority Moroccan crowd went absolutely nuts, only to outdo themselves 20 minutes later on when Zakaria Aboukhlal sealed the North African’s side win in added time thanks to a beautiful setup from Chelsea’s Hakim Ziyech, reducing the stadium to absolutely beautiful mayhem.
As the group enters its final matchday, Croatia, Morocco, and Belgium are all still alive. Belgium needs to win against Croatia (or a draw and Canada beating Morocco by at least three or more goals). Draws would likely be enough for Croatia and Morocco, but each would like to win with the hope they can top the group.
Morocco celebrating after scoring against Belgium
Final Round of Group Stage:
Thursday December 1st, 10AM EST
Croatia vs Belgium
Canada vs Morocco
Group G
1. Brazil — 6 points (+3 GD) – QUALIFIED
2. Switzerland — 3 points (0)
3. Cameroon — 1 point (-1)
4. Serbia — 1 point (-2)
Brazil joined France in the last sixteen, overcoming an injury sustained by superstar forward, Neymar in their first match against Serbia to see off Switzerland 1-0. Thus far, the goal of the tournament was scored by Brazilian striker Richarlison against Serbia in this team’s opening match. He opened the scoring with a rebounded, right place right time finish, and then completed his brace by taking a hard hit cross by Vinicius Jr at the penalty spot, bouncing up in the air across his body, and then turning to strike the ball with an overhead kick somewhere between a scorpion or bicycle kick.
Serbia and Cameroon played one of the games of the tournament, with Cameroon taking the lead a little under a third of the way through the match, before conceding three straight goals. Then on came Vincent Aboubakar as a substitute for the African side, who ignited the comeback with an unbelievable looped finish to make it 3-2 and the assist to Eric Maxim Choupo-Moting’s equalizer.
With Brazil through to the knockouts, that leaves one spot for Switzerland, Cameroon, and Serbia. Switzerland holds the upper hand having earned three points thanks to a 1-0 win against Cameroon (a win earned via a goal scored by Cameroonian-born Breel Embolo). A win against Serbia guarantees them a spot in the last sixteen, and a draw would be enough if Brazil beats or draws Cameroon in the other match. Serbia needs a win and a Cameroon draw or loss. Cameroon needs a win plus either a draw or a Serbian win AND some help from the tiebreakers.
Final Round of Group Stage:
Friday December 2nd, 2PM EST
Serbia vs Switzerland
Cameroon vs Brazil
Group H
1. Portugal — 6 points (+3 GD) – QUALIFIED
2. Ghana — 3 points (0)
3. South Korea — 1 point (-1)
4. Uruguay — 1 point (-2)
Finally, we have Group H, where Portugal saw off Ghana 3-2 and then Uruguay 2-0 thanks to a Bruno Fernandes brace to secure one of the group’s top two spots.
Though they’re through to the knockouts, both Portuguese victories were unconvincing. Ghana, who brought the youngest squad of any country to Qatar, got unlucky with a penalty decision that went against them for Portugal’s opening goal. They made it 1-1 through Jordan Ayew before giving up two quickfire goals first to Joao Felix and then Rafael Leao. Ghana pulled one back goal just before the game went to added time, and nearly had the equalizer when Iñaki Williams stole the ball off Portugal Goalkeeper Diogo Costa like Jose Alverado of the New Orleans Pelicans (shoutout my NBA people), but couldn’t sort his feet out in time.
Then, Portugal-Uruguay was very much in the balance, with Rodrigo Bentancur nearly giving his club teammate Richarlison a run for his money for goal of the tournament but he couldn’t put the finishing touch on a great run. A Bruno Fernandes cross became a goal when the threat of a Ronaldo header did enough to leave Uruguayan goalkeeper Sergio Rochet flatfooted. Uruguay generated plenty of chances but couldn’t find the back of the net before Fernandes scored from the spot in added time to seal the win.
South Korea-Ghana was a brilliant match, with the young African side taking a 2-0 first-half lead before conceding twice in quick succession to South Korean striker Cho Gue-Sung after halftime, and then battling back to find a winner through Mohammed Kudus, his second goal of the match.
The Ghanaians bring three points into a final matchday showdown against Uruguay, which you may remember is a rematch of a 2010 World Cup Quarterfinal match that saw Uruguay advance after Luis Suarez saved a sure goal with his hand and Asamoah Gyan missed the subsequent penalty before Ghana went on to lose on PKs.
A win for Ghana and they’re in. A draw would also be provided that South Korea doesn’t beat Portugal by two or more goals. Uruguay needs a win and a South Korea loss or draw to advance. South Korea advances with a win and a Ghana loss or a win by two or more goals and a draw in Ghana-Uruguay.
Final Round of Group Stage:
Friday December 2nd, 10AM EST
South Korea vs Portugal
Ghana vs Uruguay